Some Democrats, who will take the House majority in January, are willing to say President Donald Trump may have committed impeachable offences. But that does not mean they will try to impeach him — at least not yet.
For several reasons, Democrats have been extremely cautious about
the "I" word. They know it could backfire politically, and many of them
were in office during President Bill Clinton's
impeachment 20 years ago. New York Representative Jerry Nadler, the top
Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee and the panel's likely
incoming chairman, has called impeachment a "trauma."
Mr Nadler told CNN on Sunday that if it is proved Mr Trump
directed his former lawyer to commit campaign finance violations, as was
suggested by special counsel Robert Mueller
in a new court filing, he believes it would be an impeachable offence.
But Mr Nadler added, "Whether they are important enough to justify an
impeachment is a different question."
It is unclear whether the distinction between an impeachable
offence and impeachment itself will satisfy those in the Democratic base
who are eager to kick Mr Trump out of office. But Democrats are walking
that fine line, for now.
These are the five reasons why Democrats are not ready for impeachment yet:
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Other shoes to drop
In filings on Friday, Mr Mueller's prosecutors asserted Mr Trump's former lawyer, Michael Cohen,
committed campaign finance violations "in coordination with and at the
direction of" Mr Trump. It is the first time they have directly tied Mr
Trump to a federal crime.
The violations stemmed from payments Mr Cohen made to buy the silence of porn actress Stormy Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal.
Both women alleged they had affairs with Mr Trump, which the White
House denies. Mr Trump also denies knowing about the payment, but the
filing contradicts that claim.
There is likely more to come from Mr Mueller. Charges are expected related to emails stolen during the 2016 presidential election
that could implicate some in Mr Trump's circle. And Mr Mueller could
complete a larger report at the conclusion of his investigation.
If Democrats move to impeach Mr Trump, it will likely be for more than just campaign finance violations.
It could backfire
Democrats are aware of the price Republicans paid for Mr Clinton's impeachment 20 years ago. Both Mr Nadler and House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi
were in Congress at the time, and Mr Nadler sat on the Judiciary panel.
Republicans were seen as overreaching, and that helped boost Mr
Clinton's poll numbers and win Democrats seats in the 1998 midterm
election.
Ms Pelosi was also under pressure to impeach President George W Bush
in 2006 when she first became speaker of the House. She has said if
Democrats had spent their first two years in the majority trying to
impeach Mr Bush, voters may never have elected Barack Obama as president in 2008.
Republicans are also aware impeachment could backfire.
"I think it'll help the president get re-elected," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell
said on the possibility Democrats would move for impeachment. "This
business of presidential harassment may or may not be quite the winner
they think it is."
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